March 13, 2016
Yes, I Do Believe This Works
Language warning due to repeated use of that most versatile of words.
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A Few ISIS Links
ISIS has had some reversals in Iraq recently but it is still a large and formidable entity in that region with considerable potential. At the very least, it is adding to the dreadful suffering of the area and is continuing to accelerate the phenomenon of more middle aged Muslim men trekking into Europe.
This paper, by the Institute for The Study of War notes that there is the real possibility of an alliance and merger between iSIS and another Islamic terror group, the Jabhat Al Nursa. This is an Al-Quaeda group and as such has a different focus from ISIS. They, being Al-Quaeda, have tended to focus on highly trained operatives who act like special forces, doing precision strikes on one hand but also organizing local partisans. ISIS by contrast has its unconventional wing but is, in many ways a much more conventional military force. The two groups have been at odds, but Jabhat Al Nursa now seems to be seeking some common ground with ISIS. One of J.A.N's group specific, goals is to establish an Emirate run by its leaders. This has been a long term goal in conjunction with A-lQuaeda's eventual Caliphate, but ISIS, one will note has an operational caliphate right now. Note that there are considerable strategic and eschatological differences between the two groups. However, if the two groups combine their efforts to any great extent it will be a major boon to ISIS, since Jabhat Al Nursa has, while no formally claimed territory, a considerable area of operations and influence in the area and a set of capabilities that complement ISIS nicely. Their organization also is quite focused on the precise sort of terror operations and terror cell logistics that ISIS is trying to develop in Europe to take advantage of the vast numbers of disaffected military aged men they are sending there. It should be remembered, that ISIS was initially an Al-Quaeda affiliate with much the same position in that organisation as the Al Nursa Front has today.
Further afield, as International Business Times notes. ISIS has been quite active in Libya. Their operations there are, in fact considerably more than a flags and footprints mission. This map (also by The Institute For the Study of War) shows that pretty much the entire coastline of Libya east of Tripoli has been attacked at one point or another during ISIS's recent offensive.
There is more on this here. Note that the actual areas under ISIS control, are very close to Italy and Malta and, as per the map above, the Caliphate has already made its presence in the area felt at sea with some very small scale maritime attacks. Raids on Italy are certainly a possibility, but are, while scary, not a strategic threat at this time. The real danger here beyond the ISIS access to the oil fields is that they use this staging area for smuggling in weapons and leadership cadres for a more sustained campaign of terror. The muslim areas of the Balkans are not much farther and a more troubling destination long term. While ships from ISIS controlled ports would be easy to stop, it should be remembered that ISIS has contacts with others, that, while in no way aligned with them, are perfectly willing to sell them expertise in how to,with limited infrastructure take measures to complicate the targeting problem.
Note too that the Balkans are much closer to Libya than the U.S. is to Columbia.
That bears watching.
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Rainbow Swans
If one sees a major and unpleasant event approaching, it can't really be called a black swan can it?
To wit:
The London Telegraph has an overview of all the things that are going wrong at once in the world economy.
Two of the world's three major central banks have slashed interest rates in to negative territory.
We've noted the decline in the shipping industry (focusing particularly on the Baltic Dry Index) for a while. This BBC article points out the scale of the issue.
And here's the thing - the dry bulk index - also called the Baltic Dry Bulk Index - saw a peak of 11,000 points in May of 2008, just before the global financial crisis.This year it has hit fresh record lows and skirted around the 300 points mark.What this tells you is that global trade is nowhere near the levels it was pre-2008.So the 'green shoots of recovery' you hear policy-makers and economists talking about, that's not being seen on the global shipping routes or lanes.
More on global shipping here:
Entering January 2016, Chinese imports fell for 13 consecutive months and declined by more than 20% between 2014 and 2015. Bulk shipping will be one of the many globally affected industries. Most experts look for continued weakness in the foreseeable future. The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which charts the rates for dry bulk commodity shipments, hit an all-time low in December 2015.According to the article, 2016 is expected to be worse.
The same article looks separately at the three main aspects of the shipping industry. Generally, dry bulk refers to commodities like coal, steel and other raw materials. the container sector, is as one would expect focused on shipping containers (though things like RO-ROs shipping cars would be included as a subset. The thing about container shipping is that it deals in manufactured goods. There is not a 1 to 1 correlation with dry bulk shipping since a lot of dry bulk cargoes go to major heavy industries and infrastructure projects, so the downturn in China's construction boom does not necesarily portend a...oh wait...
Containers were unprofitable every year between 2009 and 2014, per McKinsey & Company, a market research company, and 2015 was even worse. Bulk carriers receive a lot of headline attention because they carry major commodities such as steel and iron, but container purchases and delivery rates are arguably more indicative of broader economic conditions.Those economic conditions would seem to suck.
Tankers obviously ship chemicals, of which petroleum products are the most common. The fact that the drop in oil prices has helped to moderate the decline in oil consumption and the fact that tankers can make some money being used as anchored oil storage tanks has meant that tankers are the least disastrous sector of the shipping industry.
The portents are not good, but that means that these problems at least are not in any way unexpected. So prepare yourselves.
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Adventures in P.E.B.K.A.C.ery
My computer issues seem to be mostly resolved. Part of this weeks computer problems turned out to be traceable to the fact that when I upgraded to the latest version of Parallels I found that it comes with Kaperskey's anti-malware package. Figuring that it was optimized for the virtual engine, I activated it....as I sat in that spot where so many of my computer problems originate ( the zone between my keyboard and my chair) I neglected to remember that I already had AVG in Windows 7 and neither of the programs wanted a roommate. I had to evict one of them.
My computer issues seem to be mostly resolved. Part of this weeks computer problems turned out to be traceable to the fact that when I upgraded to the latest version of Parallels I found that it comes with Kaperskey's anti-malware package. Figuring that it was optimized for the virtual engine, I activated it....as I sat in that spot where so many of my computer problems originate ( the zone between my keyboard and my chair) I neglected to remember that I already had AVG in Windows 7 and neither of the programs wanted a roommate. I had to evict one of them.
Anyway, I finally figured out the issue and everything seems nominal now, The connectivity issues I had have mostly died down, though Verizon itself seems to be a bit twitchy. I'm able to watch Ctunchyroll, for instance, but only at lower resolutions.
Well, enough of my first world problems, here is some eye candy...
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March 12, 2016
FINALLY! A Post That Write's Itself!
Phantom World Episode 9 continues the writer's habit of breaking the fourth wall....
Thank you for clarifying that.
So...their roots were in improvisational theatre?
The bear?
The bear is there.
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Gate Episode 22
Steven and I have not always agreed on this series, in part because he's comparing it to the original books, whereas I'm just enjoying it as it comes out...but we are in total concurrence on this weeks episode.
He sums it up nicely here.
The episode's portrayal of Leili in particular is malapropos.
Remember, this young mage speaks multiple languages, turned the tide in a battle against a dragon and can use chopsticks.
She's not going to stand there passively...twice...to provide a damsel in distress to the local ecosystem.
Worse, we didn't even get to see her dissertation on her Middle Earth Sorcery as combined with the High School chemistry book the earthlings provided her with.
" I was cheated."
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March 07, 2016
Aaaand.....We're Back
Midterms are over, though, there were other distractions over the weekend. While spring cleaning, I cut on the overhead light in the spare room, only to discover...to my considerable chagrin...that the light cover was being employed as an unlicensed flop house by half a dozen of the vast numbers of stinkbugs that have been seeking asylum in southeastern Virginia this winter. As I had the fan running to air out the aforementioned room, the aroma of stinkbug flambe' was distributed through the house in a most egalitarian manner. In other news, my heater core blew Friday night, at least I THINK that's what happened since the van suddenly filled with the subtle fragrance of antifreeze. Cutting the heater off is an acceptable work around for now. The rest of the weekend involved laundry, fixing a broken toilet, intermittent connectivity issues, and a bunch of ghouls who beset me after I jumped into a whirlpool to escape a particularly durable deathclaw.
"That last item isn't so much an explanation as an admission."
Ahem...
In any event; as compensation for the disrupted posting we have provided some Hestia cheesecake below the fold.
more...
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February 29, 2016
Midterms Are Upon Us
Posting is, therefore, likely to be intermittent. Here, as atonement, is something to tide you over that seems to cover all bases.
Artist Unknown, but it appeared recently in Nyan-Type
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Super Tuesday
Can the Trumpeting be stopped?
No.. I mean...
How 'bout we just put the whole post below the fold.
more...
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February 27, 2016
Warp Speed
Instapundit reports that Nicholas Meyer will be executive producer on CBS's new Star Trek Series!
Wrath of Khan and The Voyage Home (which Myer directed) were Star Trek at its best and the last that really kept faithful to the spirit of the old series before the deliberate shift in philosophy and tone that was evident in TNG.
CBS seems to be shooting for the old Desilu magic.
This could actually warrant some attention.
UPDATE: Belay my last Meyer's role is not so critical as we were led to believe. So much the better...
...it will make the inevitable disappointment that much more exquisite.
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Gate Episode 20
In our latest story, Itami and friends go dowsing for adventure, which takes them far, far away from the actual plot.
Said plot focuses on the the continuing political machinations in the Imperial capital, the efforts of the Japanese government to not exacerbate the situation and a brave little girl who can think on her feet.
"Well, sir, these may look like mother of pearl, but if you observe them closely you'll note they are, in fact, solid brass."
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Bad Day in Superhero School
The above captures a moment of introspection from this week's Sir Mix-A-Lot tribute episode of Phantom World which, despite a few cute moments and an amusing attempt to get Minase to smile, pretty much involved the audience doing this for 28 minutes....
Some days, even the best efforts just do not pan out.
"Oh man, that's just wrong!"
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February 24, 2016
Tornado Warning
Weather just turned exuberantly suboptimal.
UPDATE: Damage in the immediate area is minimal, but less so in other parts of town. I got to hear O.D.U.'s tornado siren for the first time last night, when the second wave of squalls passed through. This is not unheard of here, but tornado season doesn't usually start for another month or two. Note that these storms are absolutely nothing like the monsters that Don deals with.
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Yay Robots!
Yay! I'm 18 months from retirement.
Yay! I might make it before this replaces me.
This is really impressive. The ability to get up and cope with a Teamster with a pole represents a genuinely amazing amount of progress and yet leaves me with ever so slightly mixed emotions. Of course this is much more the sort of concern many of us expected in the 21st century that 9th century religious fanatics, so we should count our blessings.
I'm not going get genuinely worried until they equip it with a phased plasma rifle in the 40 watt range.
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February 22, 2016
Oh...So Marissa is a Necromancer?
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Techweasels Unmasked!
Over in the comments section at one of the cool blogs, Brett Bellmore appears to have worked out one of the many proprietary techniques in the repertoire of Overton's Window Moving Service.
I'm convinced that the modern social media business model makes sense. It just doesn't make financial sense.The new business model is to build up a large customer base by being useful and reasonably impartial, and doing it at a loss to attract customers. Then, at some point, when you decide you have enough customers, you take your profit.But, not in the form of money. In the form of political influence. You've got eyeballs, you feed them a skewed version of reality designed to effect how they vote. You've got customers who are of the opposite political persuasion, you screw with them, and extract from them the opportunity cost of switching to a different platform right in the middle of an election campaign.Sure, your company tanks, customers eventually flee. But not before you've thrown an election.The big investors in companies like Twitter don't object to this, because this is the profit they were looking for. They weren't buying future income, they were buying a chance to push politics in a direction they like.
Yeah.
That's pretty much what's been going on.
Damnit...If I'm going to live in a futuristic dystopia, I want flying cars.
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Peace in our Thyme
All is tranquil and quiet inside our spice cabinet.
Elsewhere however:
Iran is preparing to launch another satellite. This is, of course, impossible, since such activities were forbidden by the recent nuclear agreement. Oddly enough, the Simorgh launcher seems to be very close design-wise to the North Korean Unha launcher that launched a similarly forbidden payload into orbit earlier this year. That could indicate close cooperation with the DPRK on weapons development, which would mean that Iran might be continuing its nuclear program abroad. That's silly of course since such an unlikely development would render the whole Iran agreement nothing more than...
In what is surely unrelated news, North Korea seems to be readying another nuke test.
Elsewhere...
All evidence points to a Chinese crackup, or an explosion of violence against its neighbors and the United States, or both
Meanwhile, Here is a map of all the cultural heritage sites that have been razed or attacked by ISIS and its affiliates.
This Foreign Policy Article is behind a paywall, but its headline gives a short, but comprehensive overview of the world situation.
That piece does cover everything but I prefer to leave on an upbeat note and one bright side to all this is that the disappearance of dangerous nuclear material in Iraq is actually pretty low on the threat list.
UPDATE: As Steven pointed out in the comments section, that missing nuclear material was found...in a gas station in Iraq.
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February 21, 2016
Slander Refuted
Read this.
Go now.
Read the whole thing.
It defies excerpting.
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Contingency Planning Thread
The Primary results have me so despondent that I'm not going to blog about politics. However, despite the dark implications for our nation, last night's results in South Carolina make it increasingly possible that Takumi Yanai IS in fact a time traveller. Thus, since the fall of the Republic may, in fact, be nigh we need to make contingency plans. The upside of course is That Mr. Yanai has shown us the way to escape the coming darkness, but has warned us that without proper planning Americans will be denied salvation. Also the latest episode revealed that
so one might want to wonder what resources one would need to bring through to maintain a tech advantage. Note that repairs would be impossible once the gate closed, so something along the lines of a victorian machine shop would be necessary.
Also general discussion/speculation regarding GATE.
more...
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February 20, 2016
I Just Don't Know.
When I first heard about the Apple encryption story I thought that this was a really good thing Apple was doing. For a good overview of the Apple side of the argument, JC Carlton has an extensive and link rich post on the topic.
If the FBI and NSA are so inept that they can’t do simple traffic analysis on the communications or find other means to do the legwork, why has country spent hundreds of billions over decades to build up an intelligence apparatus that apparently can’t find it’s ass with both hands. And what happens to what’s left of our liberties if nothing is secure from the government?
Lois Lerner is FREE today, and that should end the discussion, or so I thought until I read this.
First, the government is not asking Apple to break the phone’s encryption. They are seeking to have Apple turn off an auto-erase function, which (when turned on) automatically erases all the data on an iPhone if there are ten consecutive incorrect attempts to enter the four-digit passcode. They are seeking to have Apple allow the passcodes to be entered electronically — so nobody has to manually type in every possible four-digit combination. And they are seeking to have Apple disable a feature that introduces delays of increasing length as incorrect guesses at the passcode are made.
Now, Patrick Frey is a prosecutor and prosecutors tend to want to err on the side of getting info and not on the side of privacy, however, he is saying that the issue is NOT as is being presented in the media.
There is also this.
Apple also decided in February 2015 to store local users’ personal data in China. The move was a gesture of good will towards Beijing that other companies like Google, for example, have always rejected for "security reasonsâ€. This is because it is easier for China to request access to personal information that is under its jurisdiction.
I honestly don't know enough about the situation or the ins and outs of the technology to know where to come down on this. I'm strongly inclined to take Apple's side ion the issue, seeing as how our government, especially THIS government cannot be trusted with people's data. The precedent would seem to be troubling to say the least. But this was a phone known to have been used in a terrorist attack and there is a court order involved.
Anyway, have at it in the comments.
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